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[freeciv-ai] Re: Approximate win_chance

[freeciv-ai] Re: Approximate win_chance

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To: Gregory Berkolaiko <Gregory.Berkolaiko@xxxxxxxxxxxx>, freeciv-ai@xxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [freeciv-ai] Re: Approximate win_chance
From: Raahul Kumar <raahul_da_man@xxxxxxxxx>
Date: Thu, 18 Apr 2002 05:23:46 -0700 (PDT)

--- Gregory Berkolaiko <Gregory.Berkolaiko@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> I ran some simulations with my approximate win_chance formula.
> It doesn't perform as well as I initially thought, but it's definitely 
> better than the current system we have in most AI routines.
> Current system:
> A_rating = A_strength * A_HP * A_FP;
> D_rating = D_strength * D_HP * D_FP;
> chance = A_rating^2 / ( A_rating^2 + D_rating^2 )
> My formula:
> chance = A_rating^5 / ( A_rating^5 + D_rating^5 )

I believe diminishing returns kick in sharply. Would using the formula 

chance = A_rating^6 / ( A_rating^6 + D_rating^6 )

fix the problem of absolute error sometimes being 15%. You should have
mentioned how often those values crop up. 

> This performs way better but for some weird cases it still gives an 
> absolute error of about 15%.

Is there any way we can avoid calling approx win_chance when that happens?


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simply sent champagne and women over to your place by taxi.
-- P. J. O'Rourke

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