[freeciv-ai] Re: Approximate win_chance

[Raahul Kumar <raahul_da_man@xxxxxxxxx>]

--- Gregory Berkolaiko <Gregory.Berkolaiko@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> I ran some simulations with my approximate win_chance formula.
> 
> It doesn't perform as well as I initially thought, but it's definitely 
> better than the current system we have in most AI routines.
> Current system:
> 
> A_rating = A_strength * A_HP * A_FP;
> D_rating = D_strength * D_HP * D_FP;
> 
> chance = A_rating^2 / ( A_rating^2 + D_rating^2 )
> 
> My formula:
> 
> chance = A_rating^5 / ( A_rating^5 + D_rating^5 )

I believe diminishing returns kick in sharply. Would using the formula 

chance = A_rating^6 / ( A_rating^6 + D_rating^6 )

fix the problem of absolute error sometimes being 15%. You should have
mentioned how often those values crop up. 

> This performs way better but for some weird cases it still gives an 
> absolute error of about 15%.
> 

Is there any way we can avoid calling approx win_chance when that happens?

Aloha,
RK.

After all, what is your hosts' purpose in having a party?  Surely not
for you to enjoy yourself; if that were their sole purpose, they'd have
simply sent champagne and women over to your place by taxi.
-- P. J. O'Rourke

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