[freeciv-ai] Re: Approximate win_chance

[Gregory Berkolaiko <Gregory.Berkolaiko@xxxxxxxxxxxx>]

On Tue, 23 Apr 2002, Raimar Falke wrote:

> > If you restrict cases used to fp = 3, you might find 20 hp and 6/7 power, 
> > or generally an ~3rd power multiple shows up slightly better.
> > 
> > That might at least indicate whether the number of rounds has something 
> > to do with it.
> 
> I have done some changes and factor (10.0 in the original test.c) is
> indeed important. I have attached another version which shows the
> quality of the approximation for various factors.
> 
> It turns out that the power of 5 minimized the error for the factor
> 8. A power of 6 prefers the factor 12. A power of 5.5 really make the
> factor 10 the one with the minimum error.

That is very interesting!!  Thanks a lot for trying it!

> Bottom line for me: the proposed approximation is much to fragile.

But it is vastly superior to the currently used one.

> Bottom line 2: we have to carefully select the set of values we test
> the approximation against. Best would be the whole possible set of
> values. Or a real (not by simulation) mathematical calculation of the
> errors we have to expect.

I'll try to do it.

G.