[Freeciv-Dev] Re: civ3's answer to smallpox

["Ross W. Wetmore" <rwetmore@xxxxxxxxxxxx>]

At 09:48 PM 01/10/21 -0700, Arien Malec wrote:
>Coming back into this a bit late but:
>
>--- "Ross W. Wetmore" <rwetmore@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>> I missed Arien's earlier post so will piggyback on Renier.
>> 
>> Again ICS doesn't work and Arien's "faster" analysis is wrong because ...
>
>ICS does work, and there are reasons that it does. That other strategies may
>work as well or better does not mean that ICS does not work.
>
>Not wrong: I didn't say that ICS is faster, I said that there are reasons
that
>ICS works as a strategy. 

Ok, I agree it depends on what level you are comparing it. It clearly 
works for the level of play on the civservers :-).

This wasn't meant as a personal slam, but a comment on the real viability
of ICS in a mature game.

> As I mentioned, I've been able to reach Automobile by
>year 400 +/- 100 years, with a fairly small initial island, by using a
>rapture-like strategy, and I have never been able to get that far using pure
>ICS, even on a very large island. 

Right ... my main point here was you really added this as a third page
byline opposite the major headlines of how ICS is so great ... 

I didn't like the balance or fairness aspect of the reporting :-).

>However, in  your analysis below, you ignore
>the exponential factors at work: 

Not really. Let's see ...

>> Assume you start with a size 1 city with food +2, prod +4 which *really*
>> weights things in favour of ICS (double average production).
>> 
>> You will generate a new settler every 10 turns, and if your 2nd city is
>> as productive and not that far away it will take 30 turns or so to get
>> 4 cities plus some noise (up to 10 more turns) to get them all to size 2.
>> During this period you are totally defenceless :-).
>
>And 40 turns to get to 8 (= 16 with the free city center worker)

Ok.

>> It takes 10+15 turns to let the original city grow to size 3, and 5 more
>> to rapture it to size 8.
>
>You don't have The Republic yet...

Irrelevant. You execute strategies when they come available. Until you
reach Republic you follow a different available strategy - say pure ICS.

We are comparing the (maximum) growth rates of different strategies
when they *are* able to compete.

>> During this period the city can produce military
>> defence and/or unhappiness improvements like temples, or productivity
>> enhancements like marketplaces.
>> 
>> And at this point vertical growth is moving at 1 per turn, while horizontal
>> growth still takes 10 turns per city.

Note, in the additional 10 turns you take above, this city can still 
have 10 new population points to your 8.

We have also said nothing about taking one of those 10 turns to generate
a new settler, or two of them to generate 2 settlers, and starting the 
process over again. 

It is also likely that with the higher production rates of a size 8 or 
more city that I could easily outstrip your settler production remembering 
that the settlers produced earlier will be exponentially more effective 
than all those produced in the last few turns all at once.

Note, if I have a high enough cash flow or large enough production base 
at this point, my raptured size 8 city can pump out a new settler every 
turn or every second turn and still grow in size.

>And 1 settler creates 2 workers with the free city worker, doubling the
>exponential effect.

A settler costs 1 pop point (which you lose for the time it takes to 
move to the new city location) plus 40 production. It produces one new
population point over what you had when it turns into a city. A size 1-2
city produces 1 new pop point in 10 or more turns. "Doubling" is hardly 
the word I would use for this rate.

A rapture city produces 1 new pop point at a cost that depends on the
lux rate you need to maintain rapture, often a 4-5 rate at steady state
every turn, which makes it advantageous up to a size of 10+ or so.

Also, the above gave the production heavy despotic ICS a significant
advantage by choosing the city production conditions.

If you work at it, you can get cities founded with 4-5 surplus food. Buy
a granary before they hit the first rollover and you reach rapture state
in 7-8 turns instead of 25, i.e. faster than the ICS city can even clone 
a settler.

Have three raptured cities produce a settler every turn, and you can 
sustain a rate of growth of 1 new rapturing city every turn.

The problem at these levels is where to put the damn things :-).

>By the way, there is no reason that you can't use ICS with a Republic or a
>Democracy. Even if we fully implement Payciv-like waste & unhappiness, you
can
>still use ICS with the more advanced governments to get around the empire
>unhappiness limits.

Yup, and when you combine them with the techniques for vertical growth,
rather than just horizontal, the exponential curve is truly overwhelming :-).

>Again, I'm not arguing that ICS is always the best strategy, but there are
>reasons that it works.

It works at an inefficient level. If the players are skilled enough to
really play the other strategies, despotic ICS is a net loser.

Or rather you do have to hold off an aggressive ICS despot long enough to 
hit critical mass for the other strategies, then when you switch gears, it
is a net loser.

Except on the servers, it appears you have lengthy isolation periods to
do as you wish unhindered :-).

>Arien
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Cheers,
RossW
=====