Re: Windevices was: RE: [aclug-L] phoebe micro pci modem 56k

[Bob Deep <bobd@xxxxxxxxxxxx>]

spiff wrote:
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: John Goerzen <jgoerzen@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: aclug-L@xxxxxxxxxxxx <aclug-L@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: Friday, December 04, 1998 12:10 PM
> >
> >It's not always easy to tell from the packaging.  My advice is generally to
> >get a non-WinModem USR (Sportster or Courier), which will be a very good
> >modem anyway.
> >
> 
> True USR does put out a fine modem.
> 
> >> them pretty cheap.  I suspect that sooner or later, they will ALL be
> >> Winmodems, except for external ones.   Also, the printer situation is
> >
> >I'm not quite that pessimistic, because modems are basically near the end
> of
> >their useful life anyway -- there isn't much innovation going on there
> >anymore, and R&D dollars are going elsewhere.
> >
> 
> I have heard rumor of the fact that Intel will soon be releasing a
> "modem/network" type card that will allow the user to achieve transfer rates
> equal to that of 10baseT over a phone line on a "piggy-back" signal thus
> also allowing the user to use the same phone line at the same time.  Which
> also means no more need for multiple lines for internet users that are
> online almost 24/7.  If this is true, modems as we know them now will
> eventually get phased out and this new technology phased in.

Hmmm.. does not seem that 10BaseT over a standard phone line is comming
to my house anytime soon (or to Wichita for that matter).  ISDN (dual
channel) is what 128Kbaud (128,000 bits per second) and 10BaseT is
10MBaud (10,000,000 Bits per second).  10BaseT requires fairly high
quality wire and runs on 4 pairs of wire, ISDN is close to the same
thing (I beleive it runs on 4 pairs too)...

Now, consider what it would mean if the Phone company had to provide
even 4 pair Catagory 5 connections to the home office....  Think of the
ammount of wire we would need to re-bury to replace all the old twisted
pair in existance...  Quite expensive. (Just ask about getting an ISDN
connection at your house...Ouch!)  How many casual internet users are
going to shell out a few hundrad dollars and higher monthly fees (from
Ma Bell *and* your ISP) to get connect rates over 53K?  Few.. Some will,
most won't.

Sure busniess coustomers are going to be connecting more and more using
higher bandwidth, but your avarage home user is not that willing to
shell out hundrads of dollars to collect E-mail and download web pages
each month.

I personally think that the phone company will be "left in the dust" in
a few short years.  Soon there will be world wide, digital phone service
provided by a larg number of low earth orbit satalites... They will be
quite expensive to start, but in a few years, the phones will be less
and less expensive and some bright cookie is going to cook up a way (if
they don't know how aready) to send just data, skipping the analog steps
and hook it up to a computer...That will get you single channel ISDN
rates anywhere in the world on one "voice" channel.  You will have only
*one* phone number that travels with you, whereever you go... It will be
nice when it's cheap enough.

The current modem is no where near dead, and has many years left..  The
only question is are they going to be able to up the connect rates on
the current phone system connections and make my modem obsolete because
it cannot be upgraded?  Hey..  Even some of the local ISP's don't yet
support the new modem standard compleatly, and my ISP just stopped
charging extra for 56k service...  No, it will be arround a while yet.

-= bob =-
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